The box office finally showed M. Night Shyamalan some love. It’s been a while. Split blasted past industry expectations and could very well be on track to end its run around $100 million dollars. This is great news for fans of Shyamalan and fans of smaller horror films getting wide releases. It also signals good things for THAT ending.
Meanwhile, xXx: The Return of Xander Cage got off to a weak start on the domestic front. Granted, this is a movie that was made to play internationally so it’s probably going to be just fine in the long run. The Founder performed about as expected but hasn’t generated quite the Oscar buzz it clearly wants. A24’s expansion of 20 Century Women was solid but less impacting than it should have been, and The Resurrection of Gavin Stone fell into immediate obscurity by opening in 18th place.
The Numbers Game
Many thanks to Fan Contributor Andrew Hawkins for filling in for me while I braved the Fury Road to Los Angeles last week.
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense. Fandom’s editor Nick Nunziata will also be providing his guesses because two stabs in the dark are better than one.
Last Week:
Split
Andrew’s Guess: $23,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $18,000,000
Actual: $40,190,000
Result: Hell yeah! We’re glad to be wrong on this one. A good film gets its time in the sun.
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage
Andrew’s Guess: $32,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $18,000,000
Actual: $20,000,000
Result: Andrew was gunning for this one, but audiences were way more interested in seeing James McAvoy in a blouse.
The Founder
Andrew’s Guess: $5,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $2,900,000
Actual: $3,758,000
Result: Not bad but not quite the statement this wanted to make. We’ll see if it picks up again when the Oscar nominations are released.
20th Century Women
Andrew’s Guess: $3,500,000
Nick’s Guess: $3,000,000
Actual: $1,475,000
Result: Bummer. This sounds like a really good movie that should be reaching more eyeballs.
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone
Andrew’s Guess: $1,000,000
Nick’s Guess: $450,000
Actual: $1,356,900
Result: Even Shawn Michaels couldn’t get people to flock to this one.
This week:
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter
Will this supposed final outing for the Resident Evil series be a draw for audiences? These movies have performed fairly consistently at the box office but Split has changed the whole picture for the weekend. It could very well sap some of Resident Evil‘s audience. Not to mention that action fans may also go see xXx instead, taking even more of this film’s intended demographic. Though, the allure of a final movie could drum up some additional ticket sales. However, the majority of these films have released in September. A January release might be the thing that really dooms this final entry.
My guess: $19,000,000
Nick’s guess: $15,500,000
Gold
Matthew McConaughey is hoping for another Oscar bid with this darkly comic true story. The previews have been intriguing but not quite strong enough to motivate most people to see this opening weekend. Plus, its Oscar desires means it won’t get tons of recognition until it (potentially) nabs some nominations. This is a nice piece of adult counter-programming though and that always counts for something.
My guess: $9,000,000
Nick’s guess: $7,500,000
A Dog’s Purpose
This film already looked like some ridiculous family fodder, but a recent controversy might have sunk this film into utter oblivion. The cheap-looking nature and overly saccharine tone were probably going to turn some people off, but it’s still the only real family offering out for the weekend. Will families care or even know about the controversy? Will it affect the film in a significant way? Or was this always going to perform the way it was going to perform? We’ll find out but I’m guessing this one is a typical January flop.
My guess: $5,000,000
Nick’s guess: $6,000,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo
