The box office was more than happy to let Fate of the Furious (my review) trample all the new arrivals. In fact, holdover movies claimed the top five spots. It was a bad time to bring something new to the table. Surprisingly, the best performer out of the new releases was Born in China. Never underestimate the power of cuddly widdle panda bears. Unforgettable (my review) was savaged by critics and couldn’t even break $5 million in its opening weekend. It was a tough time for everyone and it looks like it will stay that way until Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Kim’s review) hits our eyeballs.
The Numbers Game
Each week, I will guess how much wide-release films will be making on their opening weekend. My estimates come from my heart and my gut. You’d think I’d use my brain, but that makes far too much sense.
Last Week:
Unforgettable
My Guess: $20,000,000
Actual: $4,785,431
Result: Fate of the Furious trampled everything. I feel like hiding in a cave this week.
Born in China
My Guess: $5,000,000
Actual: $4,790,367
Result: Well, at least I got close on this one!
The Promise
My Guess: $1,000,000
Actual: $4,095,718
Result: Glad to be wrong and to see a movie like this find a decent audience.
Phoenix Forgotten
My Guess: $4,000,000
Actual: $1,816,499
Result: Yeesh. Marketing was worse on this than I thought.
Free Fire
My Guess: $9,000,000
Actual: $994,431
Result: Sad face. Sadder face. Saddest face.
This week:
The Circle
This sci-fi techno thriller could be fun, but it doesn’t have a lot of juice behind it. The idea of seeing Tom Hanks be a villain is a delight, and the cast includes the always welcome Emma Watson and John Boyega. However, marketing has been fairly boring and there hasn’t been a big critical push trying to sell the movie on its quality. This is probably a very small film that’s only getting a decent release thanks to its cast. Maybe it’s good but it doesn’t look like it’s going to set the box office on fire.
My guess: $11,000,000
How to be a Latin Lover
This seems bizarrely niche and not very well sold to a more general audience. The fact that it’s only getting put out on 1,000 screens speaks to its small scale potential. It feels like a lot of the studios wanted to stay clear of Fate of the Furious and this is no exception.
My guess: $1,000,000
Sleight
If you can see any movie this coming weekend, see Sleight. It’s getting an incredibly tiny release and a strong showing in those theaters could lead to a decent expansion. It’s one of the best movies of the year and deserves to find its audience. Go forth and be good cinema viewers!
My guess: $500,000
See you next week, box office buddies!
Source: Box Office Mojo
